Spread of COVID-19

Gating Criteria Targets: 

  • Rate of spread, 10-day rolling average (statewide and regionally): 1.05 or less
  • NM COVID-19 daily cases, by specimen collection date, 7-day rolling average: 210 cases or less. (There is a lag in case reporting).

In all three graphs a downward trend is a positive development. NM aims to have a rate of spread as well as a daily case count that is as low as possible.

Also known as the R_effective and effective reproduction number, rate of spread is one measure of COVID-19 viral spread in a community. The rate of spread illustrates the mean number of secondary COVID-19 cases produced by one COVID-19 case.

NM evaluates the rate of spread regularly to understand how well the state’s organizational and individual social distancing measures are working to diminish transmission of the virus. Specifically, the rate of spread is calculated in two formats: 1) a statewide rate of spread; and, 2) regional rates of spreads. Understanding how the rate of spread varies and evolves regionally is critical in responding to community-specific needs and challenges.

Daily public case count and test numbers are raw data based on information the state receives today – meaning data that has not yet been scrutinized to identify potential duplicates or late-arriving positives or negatives. By contrast, the Red Yellow Green Current COVID-19 Case Outlook provides a highly accurate picture for a two-week period of time.

Number of COVID-19 Cases over 14 Days to Remain Below Target

County

Population

Total Cases over 14 Days by Collection Date to Remain Below Target

Bernalillo 679,590 762
Doña Ana 218,836 246
Santa Fe 149,635 168
Sandoval 146,415 164
San Juan 126,122 142
Valencia 75,427 85
Lea 71,570 81
McKinley 70,330 79
Otero 67,700 76
Chaves 64,104 72
Eddy 58,252 66
Curry 49,915 56
Rio Arriba 38,716 44
Taos 32,513 37
San Miguel 27,969 32
Grant 27,862 32
Cibola 26,801 31
Luna 24,444 28
Roosevelt 19,901 23
Lincoln 19,860 23
Los Alamos 18,856 22
Socorro 17,193 20
Torrance 15,923 18
Colfax 11,903 14
Sierra 11,076 13
Quay 8,396 10
Mora 4,566 6
Guadalupe 4,419 5
Hidalgo 4,242 5
Union 4,090 5
Catron 3,533 4
De Baca 1,840 3
Harding 657 1