Spread of COVID-19

Gating Criteria Targets: 

• Rate of spread, 10-day rolling average (statewide and regionally): 1.05 or less
• NM COVID-19 daily cases, by specimen collection date, 7-day rolling average: 168 cases or less. (There is a lag in case reporting).

In all three graphs a downward trend is a positive development. NM aims to have a rate of spread as well as a daily case count that is as low as possible.

Also known as the R_effective and effective reproduction number, rate of spread is one measure of COVID-19 viral spread in a community. The rate of spread illustrates the mean number of secondary COVID-19 cases produced by one COVID-19 case.

NM evaluates the rate of spread regularly to understand how well the state’s organizational and individual social distancing measures are working to diminish transmission of the virus. Specifically, the rate of spread is calculated in two formats: 1) a statewide rate of spread; and, 2) regional rates of spreads. Understanding how the rate of spread varies and evolves regionally is critical in responding to community-specific needs and challenges.

Daily public case count and test numbers are raw data based on information the state receives today – meaning data that has not yet been scrutinized to identify potential duplicates or late-arriving positives or negatives. By contrast, the Red Yellow Green Current COVID-19 Case Outlook provides a highly accurate picture for a two-week period of time.