Rate of Spread
Gating Criteria Targets:
- Rate of spread, 10-day rolling average (statewide and regionally): 1.05 or less
- NM COVID-19 daily cases, by specimen collection date, 7-day rolling average: 168 cases or less. (There is a lag in case reporting).
In all three graphs a downward trend is a positive development. NM aims to have a rate of spread as well as a daily case count that is as low as possible.
Also known as the R_effective and effective reproduction number, rate of spread is one measure of COVID-19 viral spread in a community. The rate of spread illustrates the mean number of secondary COVID-19 cases produced by one COVID-19 case.
NM evaluates the rate of spread regularly to understand how well the state’s organizational and individual social distancing measures are working to diminish transmission of the virus. Specifically, the rate of spread is calculated in two formats: 1) a statewide rate of spread; and, 2) regional rates of spreads. Understanding how the rate of spread varies and evolves regionally is critical in responding to community-specific needs and challenges.
Illustration of Rate of Spread of 1 compared to Rate of Spread of 4 on disease spread. The Rate of Spread is also known as the R_effective or effective reproduction number). Source: Journal of the American Medical Association